As the graph above shows, for counties in the “Acceleration” and “Late Accumulation” stages, including the United States, the peak of the first wave of COVID-19 infections appears imminent, while countries like China and Korea are in the recovery stage of the cycle. So, the current efforts to “tampen the curve” by sheltering in place and closing schools and college campuses are bearing fruit.
Yet for all countries, particularly in the United States, the caveat is, as Morgan Stanley experts forecast:
…while the first wave of the pandemic appears to be approaching its zenith, the big concern is that a second, even more powerful wave may emerge afterwards if the Spanish flu pandemic is any indication
ZeroHedge, April 13, 2020
Adding to predictions of a possible second wave in the fall/winter from Morgan Stanley, last Friday, April 10, Boston University officials announced discussions about possibly starting the school year in January 2021. Additionally, the work of a Cornell University sociology professor and her colleagues, modeling the ineffectiveness of “social distancing” if campuses should reopen in Fall 2020, add creedence to arguments why colleges may need to remain closed at least through the beginning of the fall term, if the the risks of a second wave of the virus bear out.
Thus, as we posted last week, families would be prudent to plan for intermittent school and college closures, as well as “shelter-in-place” orders throughout the Fall 2020 and Winter 2021.
